Hormazd Sorabjee – Is India Ready For Electric Vehicles?
Electric cars have really gathered momentum around the world but in India, not so much. I would like to set a background of electric cars vis-à-vis the usual internal combustion engine which has been around since the car was invented in 1885 and it is still around very much but obviously, we are seeing the end of it.
The internal combustion enginehas been one of the marvels of modern civilisation. I have travelled all over the world in it, but the biggest enemy of internal combustion engine has been two things. One, pollution, which can be further split intohealth and environmental.
All internal combustion engine cars right now are fuelled by hydrocarbons,i.e.diesel, petrol, gas and all that comes out of earth. As the name suggests, hydrocarbons are cocktail of hydrogen and carbon. Hydrogen is not bad but carbon, when it comes out, creates all kinds of issues. You get carbon monoxide, CO2, unburnt hydrocarbons.
Earlier, the problem was one of health because the emissions that came out of the exhausts were very toxic and poisonous. They were serious health hazards but as the technology grew, frankly, health is not an issue because cars have become so clean in their chemistry. You have particulate filters, catalytic converters and all that.
What you can’t avoid is the CO2and that is the root cause of global warming. It is definitely proven that CO2is a greenhouse gas and responsible for global warming. There is no way that you can get rid of CO2. The only way to minimise it is by reducing the fuel consumption of cars because even in its cleanest form, what comes out of the exhaust pipe is still water and CO2. Neither of these are actually health problems but CO2is an environmental problem, and it is really down to reducing the carbon footprint. It is becoming an emergency situation and we should act now and reduce CO2for future generations.
The only way to reduce or eliminate CO2 is to eliminate hydrocarbons, that is by gettingrid of internal combustion engines which run on hydrocarbons and looking at alternative powertrains. People have looked at multiple alternative powertrains. They tried electric earlier, but the technology wasn’t really there because fundamentally, it is all down to the battery. That is the core of the electric vehicle, and it is the battery technology that will drive the adoption of electric cars in the future because the batteries have to have the range, the capacity, the right density as they can’t be heavy, they have to be cost-effective etc.
When we started, we started off with good old lead acid batteries which is what you have in the cars, your normal batteries. Some golf carts run on lead acid batteries, some cars at airports run on them too. The lead acid battery is very cheap but not efficient and not good enough for running cars.
The new technology breakthrough was Lithium-ion. That is the technology that is in your phone. Lithium-ion is pretty much the standard today and with more and more advances, lithium-ion electric cars are becoming a reality.
Countries like Norway are seeing a 50 per cent adoption of electric cars. Electric vehicles are gathering pace all over the world because there are targets to reduce carbon dioxide and the best way to do that is to move away from internal combustion and to look at alternative sources.
The other options are hydrogen, that is also a possibility but that is also rather one way. Hydrogen has its own issues because firstly, to make hydrogen, you have to use a lot of energy and sometimes the energy produces CO2 so, that defeats the purpose. Still, people are looking at hydrogen, but you need proper infrastructure and hydrogen will probably come into use for long distance vehicles like buses and trucks. For cars and bikes, the last mile connectivity, the battery powered electric vehicle (BEV) is becoming the big thing right now.
India has been behind the curve, we are nowhere in the race compared to China and other markets. We started off 20 years ago with a small car called the Mini Reva which ran on lead acid batteries. I rode it and my wife was with me and we almost ran out of charge and nearly did not make it home. The range was terrible; with the AC on, it would be around 50-60 km which wasn’t practical except for veryshort hops. But that was the start. Now, more electric is coming in but again, India is very far behind compared to the rest of the world.
What are the challenges of the electric car?
1. The cost of the batteries. Battery cost (lithium-ion) is high, and we import the cell. We don’t manufacture it in India sothat attracts a certain number of duties and as it is the material is quite expensive. So, batteries, although the cost has come down with the scale. From what used to be a couple of hundred dollars per kilowatt/hours. So, a small car typically has a 30-40 kWh battery, a big car would have 80-90 kWh battery but each kWh costs a hundred dollars. So, you multiply that with the number of kWh needed for the battery in the car, you can imagine that the battery itself was about 60 per cent of the cost of the car. It is still the largest proportion; it is coming down but you need the batteries to be around 100-120 dollars per kWh to start making sense. A good example you got is the TATA Nexon which is an EV and the TATA Nexon which is diesel and the parity is coming close. But the EV is still much more expensive because of the battery cost. So, battery cost is a big challenge for us because India is a very price sensitive market and until the battery cost and overall cost of the EV doesn’t come down, people are not going to embrace electric vehicle.
2. The range – that is a big challenge, I would say it can be the number one challenge because you can’t use the car as a primary car or everyday car and just get out and drive wherever you want because all the cars have a limited range. At best, driving normally, you won’t get more than 320 km in the most expensive ones whereas even the smaller ones or say the cheaper EV today which is the TATA Nexon EV will give you 200 kmat best. It may be fine in the city because you never do more than 200 km in a couple of days. But again, EVs work best in the city where you have access to the plug.
3. The charging infrastructure is still in the infancy stage in India. Even in UK, charging is an issue; a lot of charging places have people turning up but either it is not working or blocked and charging a car takes a minimum 15-20 minutes or even half an hour. So, it is not as easy as filling fuel. It does take time to charge. Although there are fast chargers and the slow chargers, charging infrastructure is still a big hurdle. In the city, most EV owners will have a charging box at home or in the office, soyou are okay. You can charge the car overnight and even on a normal 15 amp plug you can get enough juice. But if you are taking it out of town and you don’t have charging infrastructure, you can get stuck. And the thing about electric cars is that if it runs out of juice, it is stuck. You can’t even push it because its motors will be completely locked up. So, you will have to get a recovery vehicle, put it on a truck and take it. People are getting more inventive and having trucks that you can call which have chargers on board and you can just charge the car and if you get enough juice to get you where you are going. But again, it is not really convenient and still quite far away.
Sothe fundamental issue in India is that EVs are still very expensive. They are for people who can use it as their second car, for people who don’t travel too much out of town or don’t travel out of town at all. It is good for city runs, that sort of thing. The market is limited. Again, the other challenge is that the choice has been limited compared to abroad. Right now, in the market, there are only six electric cars that you can buy. There will be some more coming, but there isn’t going to be a flood of them. I think we are going to be last in the race as compared to the others.
At the lower end, the most affordable one is the TATA Nexon, but that still comes to around Rs 20 lakh on road which is quite a lot. Then you have MG ZS EV which is Rs 4 lakh more expensive than the Hyundai KONA and then there is a sudden jump to the really expensive ones which are the Jaguar I-Pace, Mercedes EQC and now the Audi e-tron to be launched on July 22ndand these are all going to be a crore plus. So, people aren’t going to be willing to spend so much on it.
What is driving a little more interest in it especially at the lower end and especially in the two-wheeler marketis the price of petrol at over Rs. 100/ltr. More than anything, it is the fuel prices that will accelerate growth and demand and people will be willing to compromise the price of EVs just to save the running cost. The other big opportunity is with the two wheelers, we are the largest two-wheeler market in the world and just to get even a small percentage of that in EV is good number.
Recently, Ola got into electric mobility, and they just announced that they will be launching an electric scooter, pricedat around Rs. 80,000 with a range of about 150 km which is quite good. That is a substantial two-wheeler and a good alternative bike and they have taken bookings starting at just Rs. 499. In fact, I have booked one, let’s see how it goes. They have picked up one lakh orders. Even if they fulfil 20-30 per cent of that, that is quite a disruption in India. Companies like Olaare very well funded, they have cash to burn and buy the market and the EV sector. They are also investing in charging network. So, they are planning to have 1,00,000 chargers allover the country which is a pretty decent number. Obviously, these chargers will be concentrated in the cities that they will be selling. So, these kinds of companieswill promote EV adoption faster. But one has to be cautious, especially with four wheelers, because cars are quiteexpensive and we don’t see the price of cars coming down.
India is such a cost-sensitive market that until proper value is seen in an EV, customers are not going to accept it. People are more interested in saving their pockets than saving the planet. Unless there is a compelling reason in terms of cost savings, overall cost ownership which includes cost of cars, the running cost of a five-six year period, I don’t see it happening in a big way. I don’t see the tipping point happening till 2024.
When Maruti comes with their first EV, they will democratise the whole EV space because they are tying up with Toyoto to come with a low costmodel,locally made, so the cost is going to be comparatively low.Their target is 40,000 EVs in the first year. We have other companies also looking at EVs. Everyone will come but it will take time. EVs need a lot of investment and they need a lot of scale. They need a lot of numbers. Having said that, five-six years ago, it was a gamble to do an EV but today it is a gamble to not to do an EV. So, everyone has some sort of EV play. A lot of them are just putting their toe in the water, not super serious about it. Even the best-selling EV which is a TATA Nexon, they are just doing about 400-500 cars a month and to put that in context, the best-selling car which is the Maruti does about 20,000 a month. So, you can see difference in number. But definitely it is growing.
There are lot of other challenges also that one has to consider. You might remove the environmental issue by lowering the carbon footprint but there are other issues as well, like recyclability of the lithium-ion batteries. There is no solution to that, they have not figured it out yet. So, you don’t want them to end up in massive land-fills which is again not good for the environment. So, recyclability is a challenge and then smaller issues like a lot of them are using cobalt for batteries, a lot of cobalt comes from the DRC – Democratic Republic of Congo and there they use a lot of child labour to mine it. So, you have got all these issues. What it does is only take care of the big issue which is to lower CO2 emissions. Also, from the India stand point, there is a need to go for EVs because our oil import bill is huge. We import the majority of oil but having said that, today the government is enjoying taxing the hell out of petrol, which is the main reason why the prices have gone up. So, obviously, they want to reduce the dependency of oil imports but at the same time we have signed up certain conventions where we are committed to reduce our CO2 emissions. I get the sense that a lot is done by the states, each state is individually announcing a lot of concessions for EV owners whether in terms of taxes, etc. but I think a lot more has to be done and the situation we face in India is that EVs are for rich people right now because they are very expensive. But when two-wheelers get electrified, I think we will see mass scale and adoption of EVs.
We need to be practical; it is not going to happen as fast as the rest of the world. People are talking about big numbers like 10 per cent by 2025 but I don’t see that happening because we know manufacturers’ plans and there is no product by then. TATA motors have talked of getting 10 EVs by 2025, I find that highly doubtful because if you start now, it will take around four years to have a whole family of EV. Mahindra also is starting EV programme, they have plans but again nothing before 2025. So, I think after that we will see a big jump in EV proliferation and by then the infrastructure will have improved. They say the tipping point is when the EV sales will overtake the normal ICE sales. I don’t see that happening because in deep rural pockets, it will take a while for EVs to proliferate.
To wrap up, we have driven EVs all over the country; we have to, it is part of our job. I can tell you that in the city, it is absolutely fantastic. My advice is if you want it as a city car, an EV will make immense sense and ironically the whole issue of infrastructure actually works to your benefit because you never have to queue up at the fuel stations, you just can do it at home overnight, just plug in and the batteries get charged. A lot of companies give you the fast charger. So, within six hours, it can go from zero to 100 which is great and it is good for driving a couple of days in the city.
They are soeasy to drive, there are no jerks, no vibrations, no hesitations, no delay,it’s automatic transmission, you just start it and it goes. It is quiet, it is refined, it is a low-stress driving experience. It goes beyond the environmental benefits and even the cost benefit. It does not have a big impact on your electricity bill, soyou are practically running it for free. Again, driving in the city absolutely no problem. They are practical, the current model gives you enough range. Obviously, you need to have parking with a charging socket either at home or office. You don’t need it at both places because the range is enough for zipping around.
Taking it out of town is a different story. I have had some experiences. We took the Mercedes EQC to Mahabaleshwar and honestly, I couldn’t make it there. Though the specified range is 400 km, it couldn’t do more than 217, which was uptoPanchagani. I had to stop at Panchagani and plug in to a friend’s hotel. It was very stressful at that point.
I have realised that the range is very sensitive and that is the biggest challenge for any EV owner, you can’t trust what the EV starts at because it can be completely different while you are moving. It is very sensitive to its condition. Then I realise the three things that really killed the range was the altitude because I was going from zero to 4000 feet and that was a killer because we had three ghat roads. But coming down, absolutely no problem, made it with enough range to spare. So, I think the challenge is going to be range management and how to increase it because it can be frightening as you know that you might not have access to charging anywhere and even if you do, it can take a lot of time.
As we speak, I think they have just installed a fast charger on Mumbai-Pune Expressway. So, talking about fast chargers, they are called DC chargers which require industrial infrastructure for electricity, you can do it at home, it requires massive load and some of them charge massive 20 lakh with the whole thing. So, it can really be done on a commercial basis but it is very easy to calculate, typically fast charges are 25 kilowatts to 50 kilowatts. TATA power has a range of 25 kw chargers all over the city which is good enough. Now what 25 kw charger does is, if you have a 25-kw battery, it will charge it in one hour. So, let’s say a Jaguar I Pace has a 90kw battery, so, it would give you 25 kw in one hour which is good enough for getting you home but to charge the whole battery would take good 3 hours. You get wall box chargers which run off your normal AC current but then they have to audit your whole electrical infrastructure at home. We have got one fixed in office, it is an ABB unit, it is 11 kw/hrs, that is really very fast. So, 11 kWh overnight charge no problem, it can top it up fast. You can also use your normal 15 amp plugs where your air-conditioners go, but those are really slow. They are 2.6-2.8 maximum 3 kWh current. So, to charge a 90-kw battery at 3 kWh. So, the EQC which came with a really flat battery when I was at Mahabaleshwar, took me over 24 hr to charge at the rate of 3 KW. So, these are really issues of EV but I think again it is a matter of when rather than if.
The trend of EVs is irreversible. A lot of companies have not only given up development of internal combustion engine but they have stated that by 2025- 2030, they will produce only electric vehicles, no internal combustion cars. That is a huge change we are witnessing for the first time in the 130 years history of car which has so far has run on one kind of engine. That is changing and we are witnessing this revolution. India won’t be at the cutting edge of it, but it is not a bad thing. Sometimes the technology changes so much.
What do you think about driverless cars, both in the West, America and in India?
I don’t think it will happen in my lifetime. There was a lot of talk on driverless cars but the way it works is frankly, a phenomenal software, machine learning, deep learning, 5G with all the data and AI. Basically, it is a library of events and stores the events. What they found is that unless and until it maps out each and every possible situation on the road, whether it is a boat running on the road and they have to put it in and say to deal accordingly. So, I think in India it won’t happen. Technically you could get a driverless car over here but frankly it won’t move, because any obstruction it sees, it will stop. So, it will be very frustrating.
When you are using electricity for EVs, isn’t that considered not saving the environment?
Yes, that depends on from where the power is coming from. I should have touched upon that. What they are saying is you are shifting one part of the pollution, from the tail pipe to the power plant. It is true especially in India where 60 per cent of power generation is from hydrocarbons. Having said that, at street level it reduces tail pipe emissions. So, at least from health point of view that is not there and again the efficiency of electric car is so good that it kind-of off-sets the electricity from a thermal plant. But there is a debate, honestly, today the energy density of things like very clean diesel is superb from a CO2 perspective because diesels are now completely cleaned up as far as emissions. But the move is to do more and more power generation from renewable sources to make more sense.
Why are we not seeing solar power chargers and panels on the car itself which can continuously charge the batteries?
It can’t come that way. I don’t know if you have tried charging your phone through solar charger; the yield or energy density just would not be there. You will need a panel the size of a small football field to power the battery on a consistent basis. So, it is all about the yield of what the power can do. It is fine for phones and hot water, but you can’t have it running. You can have it as a source where you plug into but you can’t have the car powered by it.
But if it is on the roof, can it supplement the charging? Maybe not fully charge it.
Yes, but again you have other challenges of it being on the roof, it is a structural issue, there is weight on the roof, it affects the stability of the car, so you have to take all that in consideration.
What technological advancements can be made to make EVs feasible? Also,can ICE cars be converted into EVs?
So, faster charging range, compact batteries, charging infrastructure and all the battery advancements.
For second question, you can put a retrofit electric part into a diesel car, it has been done, but it is not encouraged because over all, you want to get rid of the older cars, you want them scrapped. I think they might want to phase it out completely. Changing the engine and putting an electric motor solves the pollution problem but it doesn’t solve the problem of safety which is the other issue and you would want to integrate everything into one system to make it work efficiently.
Have you been able to personally examine the Tesla?
Yes, I drove one just last week. Tesla is obviously the poster boy of electric cars. They have captured the world in terms of making electrical cars look practical and cool but I don’t think it is the best car, actually. If you see the interior, they can be quite cheap; this one had lots of old Mercedes parts in it. But they have got that massive screen which looks like a TV, they have some cool features and a super charging network. And their battery technology today is by far the best in the world, that is what gives them the edge, the range and performance – itcomes from the battery.
Have you analysed the economics of how many units are required to charge a car vs a litre of petrol?
Yes, it depends on the car and consumption. Like petrol cars,electric cars are also heavier, they consume more kWh. So, a car that consumes on average 3.7 kms per kWh, I think you can safely say what that working will be Rs. 1-1.5 per km vis a vis Rs 10 per km for a car that gives you 10 km per litre.
Will the auto component industrybe slammed with the change in EV?
Obviously, I mean revolution slams everyone on the path, unless they adapt and move into things.
Is there technology to mine the precious metals coming out of batteries?
They are looking at recycling, there are studies being done, but to be honest there is no real silver bullet solution for recycling batteries. I think what they are doing is after the battery is finished for the electric car, they use it for stationary purposes to power a house or power something else and chalao the battery that way, but in the end, there is no recycling technology yet.
If I want to buy car today, do you suggest an EV or the old conventional?
You can buy an EV now if you can operate it within the constraints of what an EV is. If you have parking at home, you can put a plug point. I would say definitely get an EV, they are expensive, but it is value for money. Depends, if you are fine, get an EV. They are so easy to drive, smooth, no jerks, linear ultra-responsive, you tap it and it shoots. What people don’t realise is the ease of driving that EV offers.
Which EV should I buy as a city car?A TATA or the Morris Garages?
Between the two, I think MG is the better car, but TATA’s value for money is superb. Rs 4-5 lakh is a lot of money but if you can spend it, you get a better range in the [MG], it is slightly bigger and the range is also more plus the ride is better. The Tata has a smaller battery, they save the cost, it is a 30-kWh battery while MG has 44 kWh battery. So, the difference is a lot in terms of range but it saves you a lot of money. So, it is depends on what you want.
Switching from fuel engines to electric, there is a probability of losing power, is there any thought put to it?
No, in fact it is to the contrary, you have better performance. The thing of electric motor is that your maximum talk, that is pulling power from zero, an engine it has to be built up because you have to go to about 2000 RPM whereas in EV is it is quick off the bat. So, actually you can get away with less spark because of the sheer responsiveness of the engines. It is only at the top end that there is certain sharp drop-off in the electric car performance, so, I think it is quite the opposite. The EV in terms of performance is far better than the ICE car especially in stop start traffic and when you are shooting off the line.
Will EVs work for mass transport?
I think for that people are looking at hydrogen as an option because hydrogen is again an electric car. It is just that the fuel comes from hydrogen and not the battery. So, what hydrogen does is also it produces electricity with the byproduct of water and so, it is very clean. So, people are looking for hydrogen and Indian Oil is talking about hydrogen. It is better for buses as they are heavy vehicles, and you will need a massive number of batteries. Of course, you can charge that, but it can be a bit messy. For long distance, hydrogen is a better technology but it is still far away because producing it is not easy and you have to store it in a cylinder which should be 700psi minimum. So, it has a lot of technological challenges right now. Countries like Japan and all are very advanced in terms of hydrogen.